Defensive Investing Strategy

Contrarian Investing Strategy Four

There seems to be a lot of talk about stock dividends and other fixed income investments.  Dividend paying equities have always been core components of any contrarian’s portfolio.  Contrarians by nature are part-active and part-passive. Before making a stock selection, the intelligent investor should keep two key concepts in mind.  First they should question, whether they are investing or speculating with regards to a purchase that is made.  Secondly they should question, whether a stock selection is good value by fully understanding the concept of margin of safety – the difference in market price versus underlying value. The single most important intellectual development of …Read more »

The low P/E, P/CF, P/D and P/BV Strategy

Contrarian Investing Strategy One

Findings show that companies in which the market has high expectations, as measured by the above ratios, have consistently performed the worst.  The reason is, that a market premium is paid for near term ‘visibility’ on earning prospects.    To evaluate the value of a company, forecasts must be made with extreme accuracy into the future.  We have already discussed this earlier – this is very difficult to do.  Investors and analysts also have confidence and optimism that earnings expectations will be met.  Over-confidence about information and forecasts, a reliance on ‘experts’, and over-optimism leads to a deadly combination. This is something …Read more »

Benjamin Graham Investment Philosophy

Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, was perhaps the most influential investment figure of all time.His work laid the foundation of modern security analysis, and two of his books,The Intelligent Investor (1949) and Security Analysis(1934), are investment classics that remain bestsellers to this day. His Life and work have been inspiration for many of today’s most successful investors, including Warren Buffett, Michael F. Price, and John Neff. A few words of wisdom include the following: (1) Be an Investor, not a speculator “Let us define the speculator as one who seeks to profit from market movements, without primary regard …Read more »

The Forecasting Pitfall of Fundamental Analysis

The Association methodology is ‘contrarian’ because it is quite different than most applications of fundamental analysis. The fundamental analysis technique is generally used by banks, pension funds and the majority of security analysts.  There are different styles of fundamental investing which range from momentum and growth investing to value and contrarian investing. In general, a fundamentalist believes that a company’s true value can be determined by analyzing financial indicators such as sales, inventory etc.  A fundamentalist believes that a stock price can diverge from the company’s true value and he is convinced that the market must recognize this discrepancy over time. Momentum and growth …Read more »

Warren Buffett Investment Philosophy

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s philosophy can be summarized into key principles: If you had invested $100 in Berkshire Hathaway when he took over in 1965, you would have about $220,000 today.   He views investing as buying a piece of a business, rather than “renting” shares of a company for the short term. Buffett looks at business fundamentals and prefers a business that is: 1. simple and understandable. His purchases are not determined by gloomy economic forecasts, or pessimistic stock market forecasts.  He tends to put fairly large sums of money into things that he knows and management that he trusts.  He doesn’t invest …Read more »