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April Update 2005
In this month's issue:
1) STOCKS TO STUDY UPDATE: Two positions sold in March
2) WEBSITE OF THE MONTH: GuruFocus.com http://www.GuruFocus.com
3) ARTICLE OF THE MONTH: Breaking Endoderm
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1) STOCKS TO STUDY UPDATE: Two positions sold in March
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In March we sold two positions for great profit as they reached their target sell price.
Korean Electric Power (KEP) reached our Sell/Reduce target of $15 - up 45%. We added KEP to our "Stocks to Study" list in Apr 2004 at $10.28. We exited from KEP at $14.90 - with a realized gain of 45%.
Wellman (WLM) reached our Sell/Reduce target of $15 - up 91%. We added WLM to our Stock to Study list in Oct 2003 at $7.75. We exited from WLM at $14.80 - with a gain of 91%.
The March CONTRARIAN WATCH LIST is now available online including a new Stock to Study.
Our 3-year yearly average return is now 31%. Here are some examples of our recent past picks that were sold for great profit.
Korean Electric Power (KEP) - Realized Gain 45%
Wellman WLM - Realized Gain 91%
Fairfax Financial FFH – Realized Gain 195%
McDonalds MCD -- Realized Gain 86%
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2) WEBSITE OF THE MONTH: GuruFocus.com http://www.GuruFocus.com
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This month we feature a FREE website that tracks what the "Gurus" of investing are actually investing in, and how they think of the stock market. This website is GuruFocus.com http://www.GuruFocus.com. Here is a list of some of the Gurus tracked by GuruFocus.com:
Warren Buffett (Oracle of Omaha)
George Soros (The Money Man)
David Dreman (The Contrarian)
Bill Ruane
Bill Miller
Wallace Weitz
Bill Nygren
Ron Muhlenkamp
The complete list is at:
http://www.gurufocus.com/guru_list.htm
Most of these guru investors have achieved an average annual total return of 15% or more in at least last 15 years. GuruFocus.com tells you what these famous investors are doing with their portfolios right now.
For example, GuruFocus shows that George Soros is buying up MO at $50, PFE at $28, SGP at $18, IP at $40, and MRK at $28. He's also selling SLB, ORCL, JOSB, DVN, GFI, COT, CVX, BR, BJS, BAX, ADP, and BUD.
One approach to picking stocks is to buy what the conservative wizards are -- as long as they haven't driven the price up too high. Usually, they buy solid stocks with dividends that are currently out of favor so one can get paid for waiting until something really good happens. GuruFocus.com is certainly a place for getting ideas.
http://www.GuruFocus.com is a very interesting website, we highly recommend it.
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3) ARTICLE OF THE MONTH: Breaking Endoderm
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By BENJ GALLANDER and BEN STADELMANN
http://www.contratheheard.com
The March 22, 2001 headline on the satirical web news source, The Onion, broke endoderm when it took a jab at how “Everything In Entire World Now Collectible.” The article cited examples on eBay where items like milk cartons, latex paint, sponges, lint, twist-ties, factory run-off, and postcards from music groups that were less than one hit wonders were netting big money. eBay parlayed this phenomenon into success for shareholders, making it one of the select few companies able to shrug off the collapse of Internet stocks.
But this January, eBay’s taxonomy as a member of "growth infinitis" suddenly became suspect. The latest quarter reported the customary juicy profit and revenue gains of around 44 per cent for both - but they were a tad below dreamy-eyed analysts’ expectations. Worse, the company revised its growth expectations downward for 2005 to a "measly" 16 per cent, far below what was hoped. Shares closed down 19 per cent on the day and nearly $13 billion was sheared off the market cap. This was a case of being priced for perfection - as if flawlessness ever endures.
Fortunately for eBay, it has enjoyed near monopoly status - with second-tier players like Amazon, Yahoo, and upstart Overstock not providing much of a challenge. The era of pretenders like Canadian upstart Bid.com are long gone. However, that does not mean that eBay's turf is impenetrable and rivals will not steal some of its market share.
A proper analysis of eBay’s business is a multi-faceted exercise. The site’s community board is the first place to sniff out timely facts, ahead of a starchy analyst report. eBay’s user community has rightly been credited with spawning the enterprise's dominance. What seems clear is that eBay is evolving into a buyers market; where due to the rapid proliferation of auctions on the site, average prices are dropping. Unfortunately, costs for sellers are upsizing. This naturally squeezes margins.
If a certain item happens to inculcate strong price action, the ruthless efficiency of Internet technology means information can be rapidly gleaned and new buyers can arrive in virtual nanoseconds. Some sellers have even switched to using the site to sell inventory from their traditional brick-and-mortar operations. How regressive!
eBay in some respects is a mirror image of our typical Contra buys. Some like to classify our purchases as risky because they trade at low prices with the enterprises in turnaround mode. Many people rest with the impression that investments in large corporations, with a terrific history of steady growth, are not possibly treacherous. This is a fallacy. History is littered with the carcasses of blue chips and phenomenal growth plays that have fallen to penny status and disappeared. While eBay's fate should be better than this, the recent price drop does not present a bidder's paradise.
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UNTIL NEXT MONTH
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Go against the crowd!
Contrarian Investing Association
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