Benjamin
Graham, the father of value investing, was perhaps the most influential
investment figure of all time.His work laid the foundation of modern
security analysis, and two of his books,The Intelligent Investor (1949)
and Security Analysis(1934), are investment classics that remain
bestsellers to this day.His Life and work have been inspiration for many
of today's most successful investors, including Warren Buffett, Michael F.
Price, and John Neff.
A few words of wisdom include the
following:
(1) Be an Investor, not a speculator
"Let us define the speculator as one who seeks to profit
from market movements, without primary regard to intrinsic values;
the prudent stock investor is one who (a) buys only at prices
amply supported by underlying value and (b) determinedly reduces
his stockholdings when the market enters the speculative phase of
a sustained advance."
(2) Know the Asking Price
Multiply the company's share price by the number of company's
total shares (undiluted) outstanding. Ask yourself, if I bought
the whole company would it be worth this much money?
(3) Rake the market for Bargains
Graham is best known for using his "net current asset
value" (NCAV) rule to decide if the company was worth its
market price. To get the NCAV of a company, subtract all
liabilities, including short-term debt and preferred stock, from
current assets. By purchasing stocks below the NCAV, the investor
buys a bargain because nothing at all is paid for the fixed assets
of the company.
The 1988 research of Professor Joseph D.Vu shows that buying
stocks immediately after their price drop below the NCAV per share
and selling two years afterward provides an excess return of more
than 24 per cent. Yet even Ben recognised the NCAV stocks are
increasingly difficult to find, and when one is located, this
measure is only a starting point in the evaluation. "If the
investor has occasion to be fearful of the future of such a
company", he explained, "it is perfectly logical for him
to obey his fears and pass on from that enterprise to some other
security about which he is not so fearful." Modern disciples
of Graham look for hidden value in additional ways, but still
probe the question, what is this formula by looking at the quality
of the business itself. Other apostles use the amount of cash flow
generated by the company, the reliability and quality of dividends
and other factors.
(4) Buy the Formula
Ben devised another simple formula to tell if a stock is
underpriced. The concept has been tested in many different markets
and still works. It takes into account the company's earnings per
share (E), its expected earnings growth rate (R) and the current
yield on AAA rated corporate bonds (Y).
The intrinsic value of a stock equals: E(2R+8.5)* Y/4
The number 8.5, Ben believed, was the appropriate
price/to/earnings multiple for a company with static growth. P/E
ratios have risen, but a conservative investor still will use a
low multiplier. At the time this formula was printed. 4.4 per cent
was the average bond yield, or the Y factor.
(5) Regard Corporate figures with
suspicion
It is a company's future earnings that will drive its share
price higher, but estimates are based on current numbers, of which
an investor must be wary. Even with more stringent rules, current
earnings can be manipulated by creative accountancy. An investor
is urged to pay special attention to reserves, accounting changes
and footnotes when reading company documents. As for estimates of
future earnings anything from false expectation to unexpected
world events can repaint the picture. Nevertheless, an investor
has to do the best evaluation possible and then go with the
results.
(6) Don't Stress Out
Realize that you are unlikely to hit the precise
"intrinsic value" of a stock or a stock market right on
the mark. A margin of safety provides peace of mind. "Use an
old Graham and Dodd guideline that you can't be that precise about
a simple value," suggested Professor Roger Murray. "Give
yourself a band of 20 per cent above or below, and say,'that is
the range of fair value."
(7) Don't Sweat the Math
Ben, who loved mathematics, said so himself: "In 44 years
of Wall Street experience and study, I have never seen dependable
calculations made about common stock values, or related investment
policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most
elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher
algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator
was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also
to give speculation the deceptive guise of investment."
(8) Diversify, Rule No. 1
"My basic rule," Graham said, "is that the
investor should always have a minimum of 25 per cent in bonds or
bond equivalents, and another minimum of 25 percent in common
stocks. He can divide the other 50 percent between the two,
according to the varying stock and bond prices." This is
ho-hum advice to anyone in a hurry to get rich, but it helps
preserve capital. Remember, earnings cannot compound on money that
has evaporated.
Using this rule, an investor would sell stocks when stock prices
are high and buy bonds. When the stock market declines, the
investor would sell bonds and buy bargain stocks. At all times,
however, he or she would hold the minimum 25 percent of the assets
either in stock or bonds retaining particularly those that offer
some contrarian advantage. As a rule of thumb, an investor should
back away from the stock market when the earnings per share on
leading indices (such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the
Standard & Poor's composite index) is less than the yield on
high-quality bonds. When the reverse is true, lean away from
bonds.
(9) Diversify, Rule No. 2
An investor should have a large number of securities in his or
her portfolio, if necessary, with a relatively small number of
shares of each stock. While investors such as Buffet may have
fewer than a dozen or so carefully chosen companies, Graham
usually held 75 or more stocks at any given time. Ben suggested
that individual investors try to have at least 30 different
holdings, even if it is necessary to buy odd lots. The least
expensive way for an individual investor to buy odd lots is
through a company's dividend re-investment program (DRP).
(10) When in Doubt, Stick to Quality
Companies with good earnings, solid dividend histories, low
debt and reasonable price-to-earnings ratios serve best.
"Investors do not make mistakes, or bad mistakes, in buying
good stocks at fair prices," Ben said. "They make their
serious mistakes by buying poor stocks, at lower prices,
particularly the ones that are pushed for various reasons. And
sometimes they make mistakes buying good stocks in the upper
reaches of bull markets."
(11) Dividends as a clue
A long record of paying dividends, as long as 20 years, shows
that a company has substance and is a limited risk. Chancy growth
stocks seldom pay dividends.
Further more, Ben contended that no dividends or a niggardly
dividend policy harms investors in two ways. Not only are
shareholders deprived of income from their investment, but when
comparable companies are studied, the one with lower dividend
consistently sells for a lower share price. "I believe that
Wall Street experience shows clearly that the best treatment for
stockholders," Ben said," is the payment to them of fair
and reasonable dividends in relation to the company's earnings and
in relation to the true value of the security, as measured by any
ordinary tests based on earnings power or assets."
(12) Defend your Shareholder Rights
"I want to say a word about disgruntled
shareholders," Ben said. "In my humble opinion, not
enough of them are disgruntled. And one of the great troubles with
Wall Street is that it cannot distinguish between a mere
troublemaker or "strike suitor" in corporate affairs and
a stockholder with a legitimate complaint that deserves attention
from his management and from his fellow stockholders." If you
object to a dividend policy, executive compensation package or
golden parachutes, organize shareholders' offensive to drive home
your point.
(13) Be Patient
"Every investor should be prepared financially and
psychologically for the possibility of short-term losses. For
example, in the 1973-74 decline the investor would have lost money
on paper, but if he'd held on and stuck with the approach, he
would have recouped in 1975-1976 and gotten his 15 percent average
return for the five year period."
(14) Think for Yourself
Don't follow the crowd. "There are two requirements for
the success in the Wall Street," Ben said. "One, you
have to think correctly; and secondly, you have to think
independently." Finally, continue to search for better ways
to ensure safety and maximise growth. Do not ever stop thinking.